Week of 7/28/2024
Was this the Big Bear Trap Ahead of a Huge Leg Up?
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Bitcoin continues to outperform QQQ 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑. Last week’s plan suggested profit taking at the $67,352. It traded to $68,486, failed to hold the key $67,306, pulled back to $63,424, and has now rallied to and stalled at the obvious $69,420 target. There are now a number of areas of support to protect this position for a potential retest of the top of the box and ATH.
My plan for the week was to look for a swing short in the 5617.5-5622.5 range just under the 5630-5708.25 box if we tested higher first. We tested higher first, and the high of the week was 5629.75.
I’ve clipped a portion of the video that outlined part of the thought process and made it public 5620s Short
Part of my thesis for this trade was the squeeze in IWM 0.00%↑ and the NVDA 0.00%↑ (and therefore QQQ 0.00%↑) breakdown. We effectively saw the reverse of what we had seen the rest of the year and this weighed on the market. If you look at the chart of NVDA and VIX you’ll notice a pretty strong (inverse) correlation this past week.
I had also done a Non-Paywalled video with my thoughts on Thursday’s action ahead of PCE. The scenario in which PCE was slightly warm but sellers couldn’t find the sell button played out. However, the close wasn’t super bullish. This week’s plan will discuss how we will assess the action from here in terms of swing low vs continuation short. Thursday's Action Ahead of Friday PCE
Be sure that you have read the free series I’ve started introducing Volume/Market Profile. I will continue to add archives of free content as it will be easier to find than searching for old Substack posts. You can find it halfway down the page at the following link PharmD Capital