Week of 7/21/2024
With Video Supplemental
I did a video for this week’s plan that can be seen here and probably makes sense to watch first. Weekly Prep Video
Please click below for Discord access. Be sure to check your “junk” folder for the invite or sign up link.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin remains a continuation long, so we are in trade management mode. On 7/11 I had drawn a box ranging roughly 57,206 to 59.4k. We were watching for a look below and fail of this box into the 56,785 range. In the evening it traded down to 56,551 range and made a higher low at 57,782 into a box reclaim. For those that weren’t awake at night, a second chance long setup presented when 57,206 was back tested from above after clearing supply in the 57.8k range.
It is now trading 67,352 at an incredibly key spot. Profits should be taken on this test if they have not previously, but basing above here opens significant room.
For SPY 0.00%↑ we had been incredibly cautious on the upside only getting long on selective dips and scaling out quickly for day trades. Hedges were suggested on Tuesday at high of day (Discord is EST-3) and that proved to be a good idea. The weekly short setup played out the next day and saw the continuation described in the weekly plan. Unfortunately, the (second) look above and fail of 5708.25 played out overnight so cash hours traders weren’t able to fully capitalize but those who had hedged probably slept reasonably well. We saw significant traction below 5617.5 with lower highs and lower lows below 5630. The 5585 box attempted to hold twice more but ultimately gave way.
QQQ 0.00%↑ saw a box breakdown and buttered straight through its lower box below It gapped straight through the potential NQ weekly long setup, it was quite a move. It had back tested and failed the upper box from below during premarket, tried to hold (and failed) its lower box premarket, and back tested and failed the top of the lower box right at the open on Wednesday. Friday’s low will be critical next week.
IWM 0.00%↑ RTY tagged 2300 on Wednesday which was the area I mentioned back in March as an area I would become cautious indices and look to get short.
Be sure that you have read the free series I’ve started introducing Volume/Market Profile. I will continue to add archives of free content as it will be easier to find than searching for old Substack posts. You can find it halfway down the page at the following link PharmD Capital