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I’ve included a QQQ 0.00%↑ trade setup above the paywall for this week.
SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ DIA 0.00%↑ $BTC
We will have some additional levels and trade setups for QQQ 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ and Bitcoin this week.
Last week for SPY 0.00%↑ we were full bullish price but cautious chasing any upside action. We wanted to selectively buy dips, and successfully did so. Friday was by far the best trade of the week. 5630 had become a huge level for the week. We were monitoring for a look below and fail to target 48.5 as a first target, with massive upside opened on the break above. Trade setup 1 triggered trade setup 2 and the move was huge. We took profits in the 79 and 86.5 range but runners were reasonable to target a clean up of the existing overnight high of 5707.75
The plan was indeed good as this trade captured the entire range of the day. Runners were reasonable after 79 and 86.5 trims to take out the last target of 5707.75.
However, once it was hit caution was warranted because of the possibility of a look above and fail. It did indeed look above and fail and dumped 45 handles lower. I would say that was a good exit.
QQQ 0.00%↑ NQ trade for this week.
I’m characterizing NQ as a 6 day box (for now). It could very easily continue to balance. As I often do, I’m looking for a look below and fail of the box and I’m open to front-running this at a specific area. Below is the chart of NQ and QQQ with the trade idea below.
The entire 20,216-20,276 area on NQ interests me and I expect it to be reactive. That range will correspond to a back test of the prior multi day box on QQQ and is demand on NQ. Closer to 229 would be ideal for tighter risk but given how strong the market has been I would be on watch for any look below and fail of last week’s low which sits at 490.73 on QQQ and 20,335 on NQ. Once firmly back above NQ 369 and 420 (very nice I know) I find it quite likely that we see a trip to the 630s or at least 585. If this move then finds a strong bid above 585 then I would expect 778 to print. Feel free to use the levels to trade against throughout the week but be sure to keep in mind the developing intraday profile each day when making decisions. If you’ve been in the Discord a while then you are well aware of the context and setups we look for. Good luck!
Be sure that you have read the free series I’ve started introducing Volume/Market Profile. I will continue to add archives of free content as it will be easier to find than searching for old Substack posts. You can find it halfway down the page at the following link PharmD Capital