Week of 5/12/2024 for SPY SPX ES

Clearly the bullish scenario played out on SPY 0.00%↑ last week. Since I used the ES chart last week (and it is more conservative), I’ll do so again this week. Futures gap opened Sunday night inside the upper box, and back tested the bottom of it at the overnight low. Monday cash hours gap opened above the 50 sma and the rest was history. Price proceeded to the top of the box on Friday. It stalled Friday after a quick look above the top of the box which peaked into the uppermost box left at all-time highs (5263-5222.75 cash hours). It is worth noting that both SPY 0.00%↑ and SPX are well within their uppermost balances (this is a function of contract decay on ES). We monitor both. Before and after picture for the week below:

QQQ 0.00%↑ had already made it into its upper box as of Friday, gap opened over the 50sma and has done nothing but work its way up the box so far.

I’m going to go back using RTY for IWM 0.00%↑ this week as it paints a more conservative picture. This week’s data will be critical for the direction of RTY/IWM as it tends to be rather rate sensitive. RTY had already cracked 2018 resistance and cleared out some supply on Friday the 3rd. It also gapped over its 50sma and no surprise headed back to the bottom of its roughly 18 MONTH box at roughly 2100.

DIA 0.00%↑ strength has been insane off the lows. I’ll use YM again this week for the same reasons as above. Like ES it stalled Friday at the bottom of its uppermost box.

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