Week of 4/14/2024 for SPY SPX ES
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SPY 0.00%↑ SPX held its 50-day sma on Friday after opening below 3 key banded MAs. It also held just off February’s high. Outside of a quick trap, entering February’s range could prove . . .problematic.
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IWM 0.00%↑ RTY looks quite horrendous after failing at the gatekeeper to the upper 1 year box consolidation range from 2021-2022. It closed right at support and just above it’s 100 sma. It has gone red for the year
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DIA 0.00%↑ looks horrendous as well, having triggered the “trap door setup” I’ve talked about for weeks across indices. It held just off it’s 100 sma and prior box consolidation,
QQQ 0.00%↑ has done a whole lot of nothing. It is still trading in this (distributive?) box repeatedly failing the top. It has now held 3 tests of the 50-day SMA
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The last two weeks we have had “look above and fail” swing short setups. This week’s setup worked all week. We were monitoring 5272.5 as the major weekly level and looking to short fails of that level, or even better, look above and fails (with 83.5-86.5 specifically mentioned).
One can see why:
After Thursday, most accounts were rather bullish after the move higher. We, however, were not.
We then held shorts as price was trapped below 5218. We didn’t have to wait for next week to get the liquidation as it came Friday and our major target of 5157 was hit:
So with the major target for last week’s short hit, do we now see a relief bounce or a direct continuation sell? We will be prepared either way.