Week of 3/10/2024 for SPY SPX ES
RTY IWM 0.00%↑ finally made it’s way to 2100 resistance last week following the 1908.2 hold in January. We can see that since losing the white box range above, it has failed attempted reclaims numerous times. I’ve added 2165 moving forward as an upside target if it can find bids and traction above 2100 this time. A failure at 2165 that then gets trapped below 2100 would be a catastrophe for IWM bulls, while a reclaim and bid of 2165 has potential to 2211 and 2350.
QQQ 0.00%↑ is trading in a bit of a box range 433.65 to 446.72 and Friday saw a “look above and fail” which led to some serious weakness. The bearish scenario would involve a loss of 433.65 and likely gap fill at 425.61. A scenario for bearish continuation would be a failure to reclaim 433.65 after losing it.
SPY 0.00%↑ has also been trading from box range (balance) to box range. As of now I am choosing to use Friday’s open as the top of this range and Tuesday’s low as the bottom. Nothing super bearish can happen until this box is lost and a reclaim is failed.
-To learn more about my trading style, please see my recent post “What is Trading Doggy Style” click HERE.
FRIDAY RECAP
Friday was a rather wild and important day. Fortunately, we were on the right side of the trade at all times. I’ll use ESH contract for this recap but we will be using ESM contract starting Sunday night. We were fully long biased coming into Friday, looking to buy dips until we at least traded above Thursday’s high. There was a quick spike down on data to 5141.75 which we were prepared for in our Thursday night plan (premarket low 5141.5)
Once this played out, we knew it was correct to be long. Multiple reminders were issued to stay long and not short after the open until a valid short setup took place. Longs were trimmed into 5179 and 5190, with high of day ending up at 5193 (discord was EST-2 on Friday).
Once we established a box range (balance) in the 5185-93 range it presented the first opportunity to even consider shorts.
At 10:31 EST the warning was issued that I “smelled fish” meaning something isn’t right and we might get a major reversal. I described what would need to take place for both longs and shorts to be valid. We have a large number of members that trade on their own. Some choose longs and some choose shorts. I see it as my job to let both sides know where they are right or wrong IF there is a situation where both sides can be played. You can see that after the open I was adamant that no shorts be taken. Once we established the 5185-5193 box, and especially after I sensed danger, it became reasonable to trade shorts as well. Once we lost 5179 and especially once we lost the open I made it clear that shorts were the only trade.
There was a potential reversal setting up at our 5148.75 level but I indicated that if it didn’t hold I would consider a breakdown short which I almost never try. I had personally closed my day trade short but was still swinging short from the highs. We balanced in that range before finally breaking down and I did take the breakdown short.
The box setup provided the short once again and we planned to cover in the low 5120s. Low of day was 5121.75 and our level to cover was 5122.5
We covered 5120s for day trades and I hedged my naked swing puts by converting to a spread, and then we bought calls.
We targeted 5148.75 to 5155 for the calls:
I personally closed full around 5153.75 ES. SPY 1 week calls went 33-38% depending on exit and 0dte went many hundreds of percent.
From here I just held my swing short and we were done for the day.
-To learn more about my trading style, please see my recent post “What is Trading Doggy Style” click HERE.
A few notes that I would encourage newer and potential subscribers to read first:
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