Week of 2/4/2024 for SPX ES SPY

Time to Melt Up?

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I have a number of reasons to be bearish right now, but price action certainly is not one of them. Those that have followed me for a while know me as anything but a perma-bull but I’m seeing some things that suggest that unless sellers show up in force early this week there’s a very real possibility that we see a very large upside move this week. While the bearish red flags remain, they may take some additional time to play out if sellers don’t show themselves soon.

The move in the dollar and yields on Friday is extremely difficult to ignore, yet the indices certainly did on Friday. We also have two very large treasury auctions this week. We will have to see if markets ignore this issuance and any additional upside move in the dollar and yields as well. As always, we’ll outline both scenarios for the week so we know where to remain biased long and where we can consider tactical shorts.

As always, the daily plans with specific trade setups for the morning will be available each night ahead of the next market day.