Week of 2/18/2024 for SPY SPX ES
In last weekend’s free (non-paywalled) Markets Overview post I had posted this trend line on QQQ 0.00%↑ which connects the 2000 and 2021 highs, and now the 2024 YTD high.
Price rejected it perfectly this week and it now threatens to break down the ascending wedge that everyone has been watching. I personally don’t put a lot of weight in this pattern, but do believe that seeing traction below this week’s lows would be meaningful, which would of course break the wedge.
IWM 0.00%↑ RTY was also included in that post and I expected relative strength. It was indeed far stronger than QQQ, having a nice day on Monday before the broad market sell off on Tuesday’s hot CPI, where it back tested 1956.1 support perfectly.
TLT 0.00%↑ (Charted ZN which is the 10 year and not actually TLT but was the cleanest chart to me to represent bonds). It had left behind weekly suppoy and I said I was not looking to long bonds, simply monitoring for applications to other markets (QQQ IWM Gold, etc). On Monday it traded weakly higher off the 2nd test of demand, but then back tested weekly supply perfectly and sold hard down to support to the tick. It is now in a major spot and bonds would be in serious trouble if ZN and ZB (more representative of TLT) continue much lower.
SPY 0.00%↑ on the paid side we have been monitoring this channel. Tuesday saw a false breakdown of the channel which triggered a strong rally to retest the week to date highs
Today’s close was certainly less than bullish but did nothing but come back to last week’s volume point of control. We will be careful to read too much into a major monthly OPEX Friday, but if weakness is to develop this week it will likely be by Wednesday.
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