Week of 2/11 Markets Overview
Free Post. IWM/QQQ/SPY/HSI/DXY/ZN
It has been a few weeks since I did a free Markets Overview post and since this week is monthly options expiration likely sets the tone until May I decided to do another. It can be seen HERE.
IWM 0.00%↑ RTY was one of the key indices from that overview. Since breaking out of that downtrend it has consolidated between 1908 support and 2018 resistance and closed right there. Bollinger Bands added this week to show the compressed nature of the chart. The upper Bollinger Band and 2018-2025 must be considered resistance until proven otherwise, but an upside break can target the weekly upper Bollinger Band which sits at the next horizontal above. Eliant Capital with
has been all over individual RTY names. My usual weekly plan will include tighter levels and scenarios I’m watching on RTY so if you aren’t interested in longing the index then pick your favorite names from his newsletter and leverage my specific RTY plan for entries and exits. I will post a few individual names in the Discord this week as well.
There are a number of key levels in between and on pullbacks that must be monitored of course but this is the big picture. As mentioned, I will be including levels for RTY/IWM in my SPX/SPY/ES weekly plan.
ZN (10 year bond price) TLT 0.00%↑
After an initial reaction at the weekly demand included in the 1/21 Market Overview, price has now returned for a deeper test within that demand and has left weekly supply behind it.
For it to become reasonably constructive, which could further support RTY (RTY’s strength in spite of the weakness in bonds has been notable), it would need to hold the bottom of demand which aligns with the lower daily Bollinger Band. I’m not looking to long bonds here, simply monitoring for applications to other markets.
QQQ 0.00%↑ /NQ
I will be interested to see if this ascending trend line connecting the 2000 and 2021 highs proves relevant. It has not yet in my book but worth noting as price rips straight up for the 4th month in a row.
SPY 0.00%↑ SPX /ES has spent the bulk of the last 8 years trading within this channel and has now broken to the upside for the 3rd time. The first was a trap that tested the bottom of the channel and the 2nd was the 2021 melt up. Make of that what you will. See this week’s full SPX/SPY/ES weekly plan and daily plans for granular detail.
DXY Stalled at both trend and horizontal resistant last week. Additional weakness can be supportive of indices.
HSI/China Markets
I had posted on Jan 16th X that I was monitoring HSI for a reaction at 14628-14888 for a bounce. My friend Larry with
was monitoring a very similar area. HSI found a swing low on 1/22 at 14,796. I also mentioned that I get seriously interested in the 13,555-13,907 range.
I’m not yet convinced this is a durable bottom in the broader China indices but I do believe that 13,555-13,907 has the possibility to put in a bottom so I would be watching closely near there if this recent swing low is lost. As I’ve mentioned previously with respect the the US indices, individual names bottom before the index. Thus, it becomes reasonable to start your shopping list if you haven’t. We have been closely watching BABA 0.00%↑ in the discord as have both Eliant and Larry.
As always, both a detailed weekly plan for ES/SPX/SPY and a daily plan for Monday will be posted this weekend.