Week of 1/1/2024 for SPX ES SPY

Testing Higher First and Failing is Bearish

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Brief Commentary (Extended commentary below)

I last week’s post HERE, I outlined what it would need to look like for us to become objectively bearish. None of this played out and thus we were required to generally maintain a bullish bias early in the week. As the action played out, in spite of making higher highs and higher lows all week, I became skeptical of the strength of the auction on Thursday. It became clear to me that the market was going to liquidate lower. I outlined my exact reasoning in Thursday night’s post seen HERE.

A snip from the post:

I shared the plan that I was taking in the discord:

We didn’t get 70 points today, but we did sell off 40+ points from the spot and we’ll have to see what Tuesday brings. In this weekend’s post I’ll discuss whether or not this is a swing high, and if so, if it is a durable swing high.

As I discuss these possibilities it is best to recall that since this stack started (Oct 1) I found the early October swing low (we swung it long), precisely predicted the weekly lower high and where it would occur (we shorted it back down), and found the 4122 low, and identified the very real possibility of ripping all the way back to the 4600s after the 4198 reclaim (we added longs exposure 4170s and have stayed long since). I am studying the next couple of weeks VERY closely.