Update and Setups for 12/1
NVDA NQ SPX SPY ES
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NVDA
We’ve discussed the recent relative weakness of NQ and this played a supportive role in our thesis for shorting NVDA. If you missed the extensive short thesis on NVDA see HERE. We knew to expect the initial pop higher to open the week, and we had some areas to work against for shorts. I suggested a pop to last week’s VAL (483.65) or even the 488.08-489.29 rangbe would be reasonable. This week’s high (yesterday) was 487.62. It took some patience and navigating if you wanted to short the pop but ultimately paid well with today’s low hitting 464.22. The alternative entry would have been shorting the premarket fail of last week’s VAL (short the common or long NVDS) or during RTH shorting the perfect back test of 476.56 today for a $13 day trade. It’s so pretty it warrants a picture.
NQ
NQ also hit a major spot today which may impact bias into tomorrow. One of the NQ trades I proposed for the week is seen below. Today’s low of day was 15856, which produced a 135 point move. From this week’s NQ plan (seen HERE) and a look at today:
ES
Today the easiest trade on ES was the premarket short from last night’s post and the discord this morning. We knew we had supply in the 4571.5-77 range, our 4574.5-4577 spot we’ve been using all week, and that big seller from yesterday. We weren’t disappointed as a brief wick took price to 4578.25 and then it was straight down from there for a relaxing trade. Discord is EST-2
The long ended up working extremely well but frankly was quite difficult to navigate into without tremendous patience. I had already been done trading ES after the short, as I was focused on NVDA, so I didn’t even try the long and I’m quite glad I didn’t. Low of day was 4544.75 so 4545 was never even almost offered from below.
Into the end of day we saw a massive spike up on what I believe was massive 0dte put selling which front run strong end of month flows which was frankly a genius play by a large player. This puts sellers under tremendous pressure into tomorrow. Will NQ relative weakness continue or will it see some relief and help drive broader indices higher for a vol crush Friday (not that there is a ton of vol to crush here)?