Trade Recap and Analysis

A New Series

While many of the daily newsletters contain a recap section of some of the trades we took, I would like to spend some more time analyzing why we took some of the trades we did (especially if they weren’t planned ahead of time) and why they worked or didn’t work. I’ll also link these in the starter kit, so they are readily accessible to newer readers.

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I’ll start with the trade of the week with set up withing the first minutes of Sunday night’s open. This was an A+ setup that I said I would short heavily for a reason. The potential range was enormous even in the most conservative circumstances. There was effectively no reason to take additional profit for another 80 handles after 6003 was lost as we gapped far below Friday’s low

I’ll get into the trade thesis and my handling (and in a couple instances MIS-handling) of this trade below.

The session that opened at 6pm on 1/1 was absolute insanity and it continued into the cash session on 1/2. The 5pm close on the 31st had settled at 5938.25. The first move was a gap open higher right into our short setup.

This short worked immediately and aggressively for 40+ handles, again, with little reason to cover until the long setup played out.

This long resolved for nearly 80 handles to the overnight high before sellers stepped in and triggered our “if we float higher all night” short setup at the open.

This short went 30 handles in a flash and we can see once price was trapped back below 53-57, price accelerated aggressively for another 80 handles for a total of nearly 110.

I was unable to trade on 1/2 so all I could do was take almost the rest of my 6033 short off, but this move ended up triggering the weekly LBAF of 5898.25, though in a rather awkward manner. Even though I was unable to take this trade I’ll include some of my thoughts below as it was likely quite difficult to navigate into without taking some risk.