Trade Plan for 12/09
SPY QQQ Trades
The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to The Week Ahead
SPY 0.00%↑ and DIA 0.00%↑ have arrived at a rather key area. QQQ 0.00%↑ has some room but IWM 0.00%↑ has been weak and is at a key area to the downside.
Be sure you have read the Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit. I will be adding to this over time, likely first focusing on example executions. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit
First a swing position update since I don’t always remember to do it:
Long TMF 0.00%↑ currently up 13.5% (many of you got better entries that day) with profits taken.
Long CCJ 0.00%↑ up 15% with profits taken
Long ALB 0.00%↑ added Friday. I had held my partial position from before so I’m just about breakeven, but Friday adds are up 2-2.5% depending on entry execution
KMI 0.00%↑ new position Friday slightly green
AMSC 0.00%↑ new position Friday near low of day up 4% with after-hours action
EWZ 0.00%↑ starter. Bagged 7.8%, waiting for adds on constructive action
ROCL 0.00%↑ speculation size position, have massaged this position a bit and taken profits on pops twice so adjusted cost basis is quite a bit lower. Mine shows +8.35% not counting the prior 2 profit takes +10% and reloads
$XIACY up 6% wild speculation sized position
My GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ HOOD 0.00%↑ and other runners from prior positions have moved to my long account as mentioned in Discord and I’ll manage fresh trades moving forward.
After some weakness in the afternoon on Thursday (which included a spike down) ES futures traded below the spike all night until NFP. The premarket low on data was 6076, holding our key 6072.5-6075.25 zone. Most importantly, the critical 6088.5-6090 range was reclaimed which gave us a long bias for the day. The 6098.75-6100.5 range proved to be resistance into the open, but as 6090 was comfortably held from above into the open I was not expecting Thursday’s seller to present during RTH. As expected, if this were the case, we got a drive to a new high at the open.
Friday’s high found resistance at 6111 which correlated to SPX 6100 and sits just below a major extension for ES. Because of this it made trading somewhat difficult and choppy. Shorts clearly worked “okay” after high of day was made, but generally should be avoided when all time frames are bullish. Therefore, one had to be patient waiting for a solid long setup.
This opportunity presented, naturally, while I was driving for lunch. I had done my usual pre-lunch note which identified the 6089-6091 range as likely to be bought. That range represented roughly the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the overnight low to high of day and correlated to the SPX open which had not yet been violated.
Fortunately, I was watching price while driving a car and eating a slice of pizza and saw what I needed to see at the 12:42 EST 6090.5 low, right where it had been expected. We got long at 6092 and protected our positions at 6096 (take enough profit to render a stop out a breakeven trade).
It was suggested ahead of time to take profit by 6103 (and reiterated real time) and the swing high was 6103.75 at 1:21 EST.
Sellers actually put up a reasonable defense and were able to make a new low of day. However, they ran into the 6088.5-6090 spot from above and weren’t able to get through it which made it another long. Low of day was 6090 and it offered another decent long into the close if one were so inclined.
It is likely that buyers just didn’t have the juice to crack SPX 6100 on Friday but there is one thing we could see early this week that would get me to hedge or consider a directional short.