Trade Plan for 11/6
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Narrator: “It had a LOT of range” 🤦♂️
The look below and fail of last week’s low (and our box from Monday’s plan) played out and that has thus far been enough for buyers to get aggressive.
We joke about this a lot, but it is actually rather informative. When we were in incessant uptrends it seemed like every first dip buy area I included (which I invariably said I would prefer lower) would see an aggressive bid and put in low of day. It was always a bit funny to see but at the same time it gave us information about the strength of the dip buy impulse. Buyers certainly did just that overnight and cash session absolutely poured it on. It still annoys me that NQ didn’t clean up its Thursday poor low and ES didn’t at least sweep 5724 but what is important is this:
Monthly OTFU has been preserved, and the FOMC range has again been preserved. I’ve said since September that nothing truly bearish can happen until the September FOMC low is offered from below. It seems, as of now, that buyers have concluded that once again 5724 is a generational low.
That said, we still have the election results and FOMC and both ES and NQ have reached their “F around and find out” ranges from the weekly plan.
Trading lower from here:
At this point it is important on high time frames to hold 5807.25, and perhaps now even more so because of today’s late spike up. That said, I will not immediately assume that a failure back below 5807.25 will come all the way down to the bottom of the box because of today’s action. Buyers now have some protection within the box that can prevent a traverse all the way back down in the event of some election or FOMC volatility. The area between Monday’s high (5771.5) and today’s B period (10-10:30) 5781 low is now a major low volume node. As long as this range is preserved it leaves sellers from Monday, Friday afternoon, and Thursday fully trapped. Because of this we can expect them to cover (buy) if their breakeven is approached, and we can expect buyers to defend this range in an attempt to keep sellers trapped. If, however, 5769-5772.5 is lost then buyers are in serious trouble and new lows become reasonably likely. Again, things could be trappy the next couple of days so a brief loss of 5769 that then reclaims 5781 can keep buyers in decent shape.
Trading higher from here:
While we have a couple of days of trapped sellers below us, we nearly 4 weeks of trapped buyers above us. ES will need to firmly reclaim and hold 5845.5-5850 (and possibly 5857-5862) to solidify this low in my opinion. This would mean trading through 45.5-50 and into some of the trapped supply, and then finding buyers willing to defend 45.5-50 from above.
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Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels in general and certainly on high time frames
See weekly levels for higher
5900.75-5904.75
5880.75-5884.5
5871
5857-5862
5845.5-5850 Will treat as a range for a reclaim tomorrow instead of just 45.5. SPX 10/30 gap fill will sit here and bottom of a prior range. Monitor for gap fill reversal.
5834-5837.5
5822.5
5811-5813.5 Today’s spike
5807.25 Thursday 10/31 HOD Very important to hold on high time frames
5801 (5797.5-5802)
5789.25-5792.5 Today’s VAL and early APBL (afternoon pullback low)
5781 Today’s A period (09:30-10) single prints below here
5769-5772.5 This really needs to hold now
5753 Reference today’s open
5747 will Plan to consider as minor for tomorrow but stays on as a weekly level
5736-5738 Identified real time today and protects today’s low. Includes today’s VAL
5733.5 (we had previously used 5730-35, monitor the whole range for a high time frame LBAF)
5724 9/29 week RTH low (monitor for LBAF)
5713 (as from September, I still tend to think anywhere in the 5702.75-5716 range could trigger a LBAF of 24 and 33.5 but there is a lot more potentially trapped long inventory now sitting above this spot)
5702.75 top of the 5682.25-5702.75 range we traded the week of 9/15 (monitor SPX 5674 in this range- 9/20 and 10/2 SPX lows and bottom of the SPX 5674-5762.5 box)
5682.25 (monitor for LBAF)
See weekly levels for lower
COMMENTARY:
It becomes difficult to plan specific trades given election nights can be quite volatile, but the above should help in some of that but generally:
If we open below 5811 I’ll plan to be short or looking for shorts. I’ll be wary of a hold at 5801 (5797.5-5802) and also monitor for continuation below 5781 and 5769-5772.5.
A hold or look below of 5781 I’ll cover or at least hedge with longs if I am short, and the same is true of a 5769-5772.5 hold.
Below 5769 I’ll plan to hold short for today’s open and then 5724 if today’s open is lost. Again, if 5781 is reclaimed off a test of 5769-72.5 or today’s open, then I will cover more, hedge, or flip outright long.
If we hold/open above 5811-5813.5 then I will plan to be carefully long and monitor for a strong response at any of the upside levels to take profit and/or hedge. If we dip to 5807.25 and then reclaim 5811-13.5 (or even 5801ish) this works the same.
If I’m flat when we see 5781 I’ll get long on a look below and fail. I’ll consider a long on a hold of 5769-5772.5 as well but will be prepared to exit if 5781 cannot be reclaimed.
NQ has NOT found a way to hold a bid above Thursday’s high as of yet and this keeps me cautious in general.