Trade Plan for 11/5
Still No Paywall
The free weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to The Week Ahead
The re-launch of the course content is official and is now available to anyone. Course Announcement
SPY 0.00%↑ Brief recap since you had the full plan and levels and can look it over. I’ll spend most of my time covering the trade at the open (or lack thereof on my part anyway) and the slow motion short off the 69-72.5 range.
The overnight session gapped down below Friday’s low, reclaimed and rallied to the 69-72.5 spot. It took some time to play out and a new session (which was discussed on X ahead of time) but the look above and fail of 69-72.5 during Euro session resolved back down to and through Fridays low shortly after the open.
The cash session saw another look below and fail of Fridays low resolve once again to the 69-72.5 range (71.5 cash hours high). This failure then took price down to and through THURSDAY’s low which set up THAT look below and fail.
Regarding the look below and fail of Friday’s low at the open. This was quite awkward and I didn’t take it. NQ came down to its Thursday VAL just above Thursday’s poor low and did NOT take it out. I would have preferred it do so. It did, however, coincide with ES looking below and failing its overnight low. This is very often met with responsive buying and was today. I still feel like it was a tricky long to take and I was stubborn and let it go.
The short off the 69-72.5 range was also a bit awkward but this time the NQ action was actually a benefit. Just after 11am EST (I’m now EST-2) NQ looked above and failed its IB high for a 2nd time with ES remaining trapped below 72.5 and it was finally enough for this slow motion rug pull. This is a good example of the benefit of monitoring multiple indices or at least NQ on top of ES.
I was a bit annoyed that neither 5724 nor NQ’s Thursday low were taken out (5724.25 low of day 🙄) but I did go ahead and chase it long when the mega-bid turned on after a 2nd seller sold size into the low and couldn’t get through 24.
Since neither 5724 nor NQ’s Thursday low were taken out it was advisable to take major profits on longs into 5755. These reversals will always be stronger when stops are taken on one side.
Tomorrow we have the election which may or may not have resolution. The FOMC announcement is Thursday this time. We have a lot of week left and I plan to take one day at a time and day trade.
There will be tremendous swing opportunities on incendiary names (and the index) after we have resolution from this week.
For paid subscribers, please click below for Discord access. Be sure to check your “junk” folder for the invite or sign up link.
Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels in general and certainly on high time frames
See weekly levels for higher
5845.5
5834-5837.5 Will consider this potentially strong if seen on Monday
5822.5
5807.25 Thursday 10/31 HOD (Monitor for LAAF)
5803.75 reference Friday’s inside day high (monitor for LAAF)
5797.5-5802
5785.75 reference Friday’s VAH (monitor for LAAF)
5772.5 (Can just extend the weekly 69-72 range for Monday)
5760.5 reference todays VAH
5758.75 today’s afternoon rally high (ARH)
5747 will Plan to consider as minor for tomorrow but stays on as a weekly level
5736-5738 Identified real time today and protects today’s low. Includes today’s VAL
5733.5 (we had previously used 5730-35, monitor the whole range for a high time frame LBAF)
5724 9/29 week RTH low (monitor for LBAF)
5713 (as from September, I still tend to think anywhere in the 5702.75-5716 range could trigger a LBAF of 24 and 33.5 but there is a lot more potentially trapped long inventory now sitting above this spot)
5702.75 top of the 5682.25-5702.75 range we traded the week of 9/15 (monitor SPX 5674 in this range- 9/20 and 10/2 SPX lows and bottom of the SPX 5674-5762.5 box)
5682.25 (monitor for LBAF)
See weekly levels for lower
COMMENTARY:
Not much of a need to change levels for tomorrow based on today’s action so I just made some small tweaks.
Value overlapped lower today relative to both and the daily remains OTFD (making lower lows and lower highs): this means sellers remain in control. I would still REALLY prefer that NQ take out Thursdays low and ES take out 5724 before a durable swing low can be found. It isn’t an absolute requirement as I’m not a purist but it would be a much stronger reversal if we are to get one.
We can see that dip buyers aren’t dead and we aren’t surprised as we still trade above the September FOMC range. Because of this I’ll remain generally short biased, but willing to take selective longs, and I’m closely monitoring for swing low setups.
I don’t actually love today’s profile in terms of great setups for tomorrow and it is election day so I won’t plan too many but:
A look below and fail of 5724 (especially if NQ cooperates in looking below and failing Thursday’s low) is really the only long I would pre-plan. It will need to reclaim 36-38 to have legs if we see it tomorrow.
A look below and fail of 36-38 can be a long but I’m not confident it has much range. 47, 52, 57, and 60.5 would be targets if it works. Monitor for continuation at each level and higher.
A look above and fail of 58.75-60.5 similarly May not be great but would be a valid short targeting 52, 47, and 36-38.
A look above and fail of today’s high is a valid short but it is probably best for sellers to prevent a prior day high from being taken out.
Sellers won’t be in any trouble until we are cleanly holding above 5807.25 so I won’t necessarily assume a swing low has been found if we trade above todays high.
Election days can be pretty bipolar. At times volumes and volatility might be completely dead and then we may have moments of the exact opposite. It is frankly a great day to take off and I may do that.