Trade Plan for 11/25

The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to The Week Ahead

I did a free video on “Hedging the Edge” which is a concept I often use to manage a position at very binary spots so that I can hold my primary position for a much larger move. Hedging the Edge

As mentioned on Thursday night, we had closed Thursday essentially right at the key reclaim for SPX. We used 5969 as a bit of a pivot for Friday which I rarely do. Below 5669 we knew the risk down to a 5941.75 test. Above 5669 we were expecting a retest of 5984 (roughly Thursday’s high) and then monitor for continuation to our next two levels which were 5993.25 and 6000.

Futures traded down to 5941.75 overnight (5940.75 overnight low), cash opened right at the 5969 spot (68.25) and the opening drive took price straight to 5993.25.

The rest of the day was all about 5969 for longs. We took a long on the look below and fail of 5969 right at 10:30 which we started monitoring for at 10:22 EST

As mentioned in the weekly plan, we have come to what is really the last line for sellers on ES. Sellers would have to accomplish something early in the week or I believe we can expect a grind higher into the end of the week. NQ remains more at risk than ES, but the way it moves it can catch up quickly. We will be ready to capitalize on any dips that may be offered.

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Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels in general and certainly on high time frames

ES Levels to add to the weekly levels for Monday

5999-6001

5969-5972

5962.75 reference Friday’s low

5955

5947.5

NQ Levels to add to the weekly levels for Monday

20862

20802

20784-20793

20745

20722.25 Friday’s RTH low

COMMENTARY:

Not a ton to add to the weekly commentary. Friday’s profile ended up pretty boring. As of now I see zero reason to execute a trade anywhere in Friday’s range. That can change depending on the overnight session and how we open (will update in Discord if so) but for now I see the following.

A look below and fail of Friday’s low is a long. It can have legs if it can reclaim 69-72 so we can be cautious if price rejects 69-72 from below.

A fresh look below and fail of 69 that doesn’t get to Friday’s low works as well. It wouldn’t be quite as powerful but remains valid (again).

A look above and fail of Friday’s high will trigger weakness but we may not get follow through so I would keep the trade tight (tight stop and prepared to take profit or get flat fast). I would be prepared to have my core position covered in the 77-80 range if I were to take this trade. If this plays out as a true gap up that fails then monitor 90 for a potential trap, then for continuation at 84, and 77-79, 69-72, and Friday’s low

A true gap up (opening RTH above Friday’s high) is a long as long as it holds a back test. We can call 90-93.5 a successful back test.