Trade Plan for 11/15

It Had to be Done Today

The weekly post for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ should be reviewed prior to this. Link to The Week Ahead

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SPY 0.00%↑

We added SPY puts yesterday in the Discord and I was personally looking to be short today at least until we saw 5984-5990.

The broad range was defined as 5990-6040 but as mentioned above the paywall last night, it was the failure to bid the 6030s that had me leaning bearish. The early overnight session saw some weakness but the Euro session rallied to just below our 6027-6030 spot. Buyers were absorbed there and data triggered some weakness. This left us in a tough spot opening almost exactly in the middle of the range. I was personally short from early premarket but the open could have gone either way. I chose to use NQ to form my bias on ES, specifically the 21138 level.

We can see the 2 fails at 138 on NQ and from there longs were unlikely to work on ES until the bottom of the range.

We talked in last night’s plan about “hedging the edge.” I’ll do a separate post on this concept but the TLDR is as we came into bottom of range I started looking for longs while still holding a short position (profits taken). Until the range breaks we should be long the bottom and short the top. This allows me to adjust my positioning to net long at the bottom, take profits on the long on a pop, and re-adjust as needed.

Buyers are in some trouble here and at risk of a further liquidation if we don’t see some key reclaims pretty quickly. We’ll discuss what that would look like in tonight’s plan.

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Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels in general and certainly on high time frames

AVWAPS to add: NQ and ES 11/4 12:05pm if you don’t have them.

See Weekly Levels for Higher

6053.25 reference Monday’s overnight high

6049

6036.5-6040.5

6027-6030

6020.5 reference todays excess high (6020 Weekly level)

6011.5-6013 reference todays excess above to weekly 13 level

5999-6001

5987-5989 I’m using this instead of 84 since we already have that as a weekly level and this spot will determine a successful reclaim tomorrow. Includes todays VAL

5976-5977

5964.5-5967 you could remove 67-76 from weekly levels as long as you remember why it was there. It won’t be relevant if 64.5 is lost

5956-5957.5 11/6 SPX (and RTH close) gap fill.

See weekly levels for lower - didn’t want to duplicate them for the indicator

NQ Levels/ranges for Friday in addition to the weekly levels

21138 clearly needs to stay on there

21054.75 reference Tuesdays low. Stays

21020-21027. Add

COMMENTARY:

After the bell both ES and NQ came into key spots. NQ tagged its AVWAP (from above the levels) and ES hit the bottom of the range I suggested could potentially trigger a LBAF of 5984. ES has just a bit further before it gets to its AVWAP.

I will maintain a short bias until 5984 is reclaimed. This is big picture. I am acutely aware tomorrow of potential failed reclaims on short time frames.

I used 5987-5989 as the daily level as it is the first gate keeper of 5984. A failure in this range and therefore failed reclaim of 5984 is a short.

I could further see 5999-6001 (or even the weekly 5993.25 which was roughly the bottom of the box) causing a false reclaim.

I will short pops at failures of any of the levels above us if indicated by the developing session if we trade higher first.

If we gap down I think we need to be trapped below 56-57.5 to see traction lower. Trading between 56 and 77 could be awkward. I won’t plan for longs but I am open to taking longs since I still hold at least puts and may end up with a short position overnight or premarket. I would consider these longs hedges against a short until buyers prove themselves. If you aren’t comfortable shorting then I would suggest remaining flat until buyers give us a legitimate reason to join them again.

If we gap up high enough I may change my bias and would update in the morning, but I doubt it.