The Week Ahead in SPY QQQ

No Paywalls all Week for Election Week of 11/03/24

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Both ES and NQ levels this week again.

Levels - Note not all weekly levels will be used each day but they could all present as part of an “active sequence” within a given day(s). Focus on the bold levels on high time frames

I will include a significant amount of range for this week given the election and FOMC. I don’t expect the entire range to be traded but levels can be carried forward out of this week as well.

Glossary of some commonly used abbreviations:

Complete Levels/Ranges for ES (note there is a converter script in Tradingview to convert ES levels to SPX or SPY. For SPX this week ES will trade roughly 30-32 points higher. For a quick and dirty conversion to SPY, take ES, divide by 10 and then subtract $5 from SPY. For example, the 10/31 cash hours low (3:30-4pm candle) was 5734.5. The low on SPY was 568.44. 5734.5/10 = 573.5. It’s close if you don’t want to use the converter.

See last week’s levels for higher

6022

6000 -psychological

5997

5964

5945

5925-5927.25 10/17 excess RTH ATH to 10/17 ETH ATH

5914 10/13 VAH (can use 12.5-15.5 as a range)

5900.75-5904.75

5887 reference 10/20 week’s VAH

5857-5862 Will carry this forward from last week as it will represent a key reclaim in the future

5845.5 10/30 low and multiple key weekly volume profile references.

5834-5837.5 reference 10/20 week’s VAL and 10/29 low

5822.5

5807.25 10/31 RTH high and key high time frame volume profile level.

5797.5-5802 Same spot as last week and includes 10/20 week’s 5801 low.

5769 (69-72)

5747 10/31 spike base and bottom of last week’s lower distribution

5733.5 “She’s a 10, but she forgot about ES 5733.5.” Just don’t ever pull it off your chart

5724 9/29 week RTH low

5713

5702.75 top of the 5682.25-5702.75 range we traded the week of 9/15 (monitor SPX 5674 in this range- 9/20 and 10/2 SPX lows and bottom of the SPX 5674-5762.5 box)

5682.25 From 9/15 week and the bottom of the 5682.25-5702.75 range we traded FOMC week. This will sit at roughly 5650 SPX which was prior resistance and top of the SPX 5560-5647 box

5675.25 FOMC day low on ES. This level is bold not because it is strong but because of its importance. This also will sit near 5647 on SPX as described above

5665 Top of the ES 5585-5665 Box

5655 VAH for the 5585-5665 BOX

5646 You probably don’t remember this from September but it was a spike base on 8/30. It was the failure of this spike base that triggered our massive September breakdown short to 5395 ES. Will roughly correspond to the 5615.08 FOMC low on SPX

5633 a major YTD HVN

5621 bottom of the 9/8 week upper distribution

5612 VAL for the 5585-5665 box

5603 reference YTD developing VAH

5594 key volume profile level on ES and would roughly correspond to the bottom of the SPX 5560-5647 box

5585 Bottom of the 5585-5665 box

5572

5560

5532.5 target on persistent weakness below 5585

5506 Put on a diaper and buy this if it holds. Thoroughly fill said diaper if it doesn’t hold

NQ Levels/Ranges:

20983.75 ETH Excess ATH

20916.75 7/10 RTH Excess ATH (and spike extreme)

20894.5 7/11 open, 7/10 spike base

20872 7/11 A period singles above here

20854 bottom of the 7/7 week excess distribution

20822.5 7/11 B period singles filled

20777.75-20797 with descriptions below

20797 7/15 excess high, 7/7 week LVN, remaining 7/11 singles above here

20777.75 7/7 week VAH

20745.25 7/15 excess above here last week (10/27 week) RTH high sat here

20690 Thanos Seller re-appeared here on 10/30

20590-20603.

20530-20543 10/30 spike down occurred at this key weekly level

20495

20443-20449

20405-20412 Thanos seller showed up premarket 10/31 at this key weekly level

20366 key level from last week and Thursday 10/31 RTH high.

20320 10/20 week VAL and key reclaim

20288 11/1 high of day

20252.75-20272.5 keep this on your chart forever, especially 252.75

20206.25 10/13 week low

20190 Will initially presume this to be minor but could see early rotational trading between 120-190

20115-20120

20069 from prior weekly level and 11/1 open

20009.25 reference 10/31 POOR low.

19999 10/7 RTH close, an open gap

19969 a key YTD HVN

19948 10/6 week RTH low, roughly YTD VAH

19885.25-19905

19818 10/1 low and October RTH low

19737-19745 Persistent weakness below here could see another 500 handles. It needs to hold

19688.5

19632.75

19590

19558 9/18 FOMC rate cut low

19485

19401

19286

19198

COMMENTARY:

Sellers are firmly in control on the daily and weekly time frame. Thus, my bias will be short until I see a failure from sellers, and a resultant response from buyers.

I won’t spend much time on RTY this other than to say that it held 2196.1-2202.7 demand form last week just below the prior week low. Relative to ES and NQ it really didn’t perform too terribly. It is of course ultimately going to zero, and possibly negative numbers, but its relative resilience in the face of the dollar and yields screaming is noteworthy. If we see relief in the dollar and yields out of this week, I will definitely consider holding my nose and risking my reputation (and hard-earned capital) by longing this sack of unprofitable turds.

NQ laid the kind of trap that you’ll only get during an earnings week. It looked primed to finally break to the upside until our bigger seller popped back into the tape ahead of META 0.00%↑ and MSFT 0.00%↑ earnings.

If I had to distill NQ down to a picture it would look like this:

While I generally favor upside resolution above 20366, the entire 366-495 range could be extremely awkward and trappy. Back above 495 (higher highs and higher lows above it) puts sellers seriously up against it and we should see 690.

Any kind of look above and fail of Friday’s high 288 likely finds 115-120 and realistically new lows. A look above and fail of 366 would be similar once price is trapped back below 252.75

Below 115-120 retests Friday’s open of 69. If it doesn’t hold then we clean up (take out) the Thursday poor low.

A look below and fail of last week’s low (lets just keep in mind it is likely to be a wild week) would target 115-120 and then 252.75. If this is playing out after the election and FOMC then I would expect 366 as well and maybe a monster rally.

ES is somewhat similar:

Holding below 69-72 I expect 47 to be retested and 33.5 if 47 is lost. 33.5 is such a beast I won’t take it for granted how many times it can hold. We have relative equal lows from October at 5724. Keep in mind taking this out would represent ending monthly OTFU. Often, we would see a back test higher after this, but with sellers in control of weekly and daily timeframes and a monster week we need to buyers show their hand (after some kind of failure from sellers) before we look for upside reversals.

Nonetheless, we had wanted to buy a proper back test of the FOMC range since the overnight gap away from it. We’ve tested near it a ton. This makes me perhaps more hesitant to buy it but if it triggers a reclaim of 33.5 and especially 47 then we should see 69-72. Like NQ, if we have taken out 5724 and after the election and FOMC we are making higher highs and higher lows back above 33.5 I think it has potential to be a monster long. Earlier in the week I’m more cautious.

If we simply keep selling off to and through the FOMC low then we simply stay short until we find a daily balance which we will cover in the daily plans.

If we trade higher first and look above and fail Friday or Thursday’s high (5803.75 and 5807.25 respectively) then I favor a trip down to 69-72. This then looks like a second failed test higher and below 69 would look bad for bulls.

I won’t be super confident in technical repair until we are making higher highs and higher lows back above 5845. Like NQ, I favor upside if we can cleanly base back above Thursday’s high but I’m mindful of a look above and fail that could come as high as 5845 (potentially higher on extreme volatility) given the wild week we have upcoming.