The Week Ahead for SPY/SPX/ES

Week of 10/13/24

For those that had the patience with the SPY 0.00%↑ swing long from ES 5720s/30s and held through both retests of our entry, we made it to our 5830 and 5860 targets late this week. Again, this was a perfect example of why I convert my day trades into a lower leverage swing and or “hedge the edge.” I’ll be writing further on this in the near future.

We remain long Bitcoin. I personally missed the sub 59k adds on Thursday walking out to the beach but am happy enough with the 60.1k adds as it rallied to 63.4k on Friday. Buyers are currently struggling to find bids above the October open to take the month green. The longer it remains trapped below the open the more likely it is that we revisit 61k at least. That said, this is the setup I’ve been waiting for to take it to new all-time highs. If buyers can’t get it done into the end of the year then I think that’s a very bad sign for markets in general in 2025.

Additional positions include AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ NMM 0.00%↑ MO 0.00%↑ OKLO 0.00%↑ CCJ 0.00%↑ VALE 0.00%↑ TLT 0.00%↑ TMF 0.00%↑

A number of you caught the SNOW 0.00%↑ move in my absence as we were waiting for a day it could sustain a bid above 115.02. Naturally it played out while I was on vacation.

This was the setup we were working with for the swing long and while it floundered for a while it finally found the strength for the move higher we wanted (I just needed to go on vacation clearly).

As of now everything looks excellent and rather bullish. There’s even a poor high from Friday, suggesting the upward directional move is incomplete. We’ve discussed the persistently elevated volatility as a potential warning sign. That said, it is a common misconception that volatility and the index always move opposite each other. Given we have an election in a few weeks, volatility remaining sticky as the market rallies can’t be too much of a surprise. We’ll remain long, but cautious and ready to flip our bias if there is a change in character. Such a change in character does often coincide with my return from vacations so we will be nimble.