SPX SPY ES for 8/5/24

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The weekly plan should be read and the weekly video should be watched prior to reading this post. Weekly Plan

On July 17th IWM 0.00%↑ RTY hit 2300 and SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ sold off hard that day. We have had either a short or neutral bias coming into each day since. RTY has pulled back 8%, ES has pulled back 6.8%, and NQ has pulled back 12.4% since.

The above was posted in the 7/21 weekly plan above the paywall and we have seen 2 lower high rally attempts which served as nice opportunities to at least unload any underwater longs.

The SPY 0.00%↑ plan for Friday was to sell rips. Period. The market didn’t do a whole lot of ripping, just a lot of dipping. We find ourselves now in a key structural area. QQQ 0.00%↑ sits at its 0.618 retracement from the April low to ATH and at major monthly support let’s call it 445. Hold right here right now or a quick trap lower and bulls can make an attempt to negate some of this weakness.

Similarly, SPY 0.00%↑ sits at its 0.5 retracement and has a bit more room to the downside to complete a monthly evening star reversal (in the first few days of the month lol) yet hold major monthly support for a potential high time frame higher low.

I do expect sellers to lurk higher to make an attempt at producing a weekly lower high or another daily lower high for direct continuation lower if we first rally from here. I would be watching the 540 area on SPY 0.00%↑ this week if buyers make an attempt at a reversal. If we begin to see higher highs and higher lows above 540 then we still have to be cautious of the weekly lower high scenario, but bulls could take back control on shorter time frames.

I believe we resolve lower from here. The only question to me is if we see direct continuation lower on Monday or if bulls try to stage a rally. I will be lurking to defend lower highs if they do.

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