SPX SPY ES for 8/1/24
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The weekly plan should be read and the weekly video should be watched prior to reading this post. Weekly Prep and Video
I did a quick video on a Crude Oil setup and it can be found here. Crude/Energy Trade Setup
Today was a great day for profit taking. We had front run the crude entry yesterday when CL hit my last line at $74.6. I did my best to get everyone in though I was away from the desk.
Crude rallied all night and all day today. The 76.4 reclaim entry from the video worked for anyone that wasn’t in the discord. At the time of this writing it trades 78.64.
We had also bought XLE 0.00%↑ 9/20 $94 calls at ~ $92.5 for $2.46. These gap opened ITM (3.15 high on the contract) but have since faded to 2.8. We will monitor the next 2 days to decide if profit takes can be added back if it is constructive.
Many of us took some AMD 0.00%↑ earnings lottos. I would of course never do something so irresponsible 😉 (we do like to have some fun though we take the trading VERY seriously).
The weeklies tripled from $3 to $9 before the vol crush and typical AMD post ER gap and face. Monthlies doubled.
SPY 0.00%↑ ended up super straight forward. In the earnings sell off ES tagged and held the bottom of the box. So where did it go next? The top of the box. I made it clear I wasn’t shorting the top of the box for once. And sure enough it broke out premarket. Where was today’s low? A perfect back test of the box. It is important not to try to face a breakout such as this.
At this point we must now assess if this is a rally to a lower high for a short, or if this is a major low for a sustained rally to new highs. 🤝
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