SPX SPY ES for 7/9/24

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The full weekly plan and commentary should be reviewed ahead of this post.

For SPY 0.00%↑ today we were looking to buy dips, but were cautious if we traded higher given how extended we’ve gotten to the upside. We were specifically looking for a bid in the 5610-11 range on ES. This played out overnight (overnight low of 10.75), ripped to and through Friday’s high, opened on a true gap up and tagged the next target of 38 (high of day 37.5).

Caution was reiterated in the Discord with risks of a gap up and fail especially once buyers failed to sustain bids above 5636.

From here the day was filled with a lot of rotational trading with limited follow through. This is a function of broader bullish context with the first downside level having been protected overnight, combined with some upside exhaustion and a failure to sustain a bid above Friday’s high. These are good days to keep it small size, selective, and tactical.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see more days like this. I would prefer to see some of these late to the party longs get liquidated for a cleaner dip buy, but it is possible we just get grinding chop for a bit longer before a bigger move takes place.

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