SPX SPY ES for 7/30/24
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The weekly plan should be read and the weekly video should be watched prior to reading this post. Weekly Prep and Video
I did a quick video on a Crude Oil setup last night and it can be found here. Crude/Energy Trade Setup
SPY 0.00%↑ put in some pretty wild intraday swings today but ended up as a double inside day (inside of Friday which was inside of Thursday). As mentioned in the plan for today, we had boxed this range. I had chosen to use 5527 as the top of the box and look for a look above and fail that ideally took out Thursday’s high. Futures were straight up overnight until Thursday’s high 5533.25 was taken out. Take a look at the volume on the 8:30 and 8:35 EST 5 minute candles. This was the squeeze of late sellers I was looking for and our big seller took advantage. This trade resolved for 50 handles before a ferocious reversal.
Once this trade was active, the day continued to be a short to me. A second chance entry was offered at 10am when 23-26.75 was defended from below. This entry resolved for 40 handles. A THIRD defense of this range on the look above and fail of the IB high resolved for 23-25
I’m somewhat neutral here. I ended up taking shorts today because we traded higher first and failed. Had we traded lower and failed overnight I would have been long. Buyers didn’t have a terrible day today but have still not yet taken out a prior day’s high during the cash session. The look above Thursdays high during the overnight was a disaster. That said, sellers will need to find some renewed conviction as we are simply balancing here. We have an action packed week and this could be a drop-base-drop or a drop-base-rally situation for the index. I’m just fine with either.
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