SPX SPY ES for 7/18/24

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Today on QQQ 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑ caught a lot of people off guard. We have been extremely cautious on rips higher for two weeks now as the index got extended. Yesterday’s close looked super strong yet the bid completely evaporated overnight. It is generally unwise to randomly put directional shorts on in an uptrend and many of us have paid that price in the past. It was, however, a good time to put on some hedges into VIX expiration today and equity options expiration Friday. The late move higher yesterday, while appearing bullish, made absolutely no sense technically and had me very cautious. VIX was extremely firm which is a bit u common into VIXperation. There was non-stop chest beating on social media which is never a good look (though not tradeable on its own), and yesterday was a clean balance day with a bizarre rip higher away from value AND an attempted spike up into the close. When I am long in these situations I exit. More savvy participants do the same and this was part of the impetus for the caution into today if it appeared that the bid had vanished. It was completely absent overnight and every level was popped without much of a defense

We’ve yet to see a follow through day from sellers. We didn’t see one last week. Will we see one tomorrow?

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