SPX SPY ES for 6/5/24

Can We Break Out Now?

The full weekly plan and commentary should be reviewed ahead of this post and can be seen HERE.

Monday was another super bullish close, but we remained neutral into today given the hesitance of buyers to initiate above 5307 and 13. Overnight traded up to 5304, falling short of the key 5305-08 and sold off the rest of the night 40+ handles. The dip was bought up off our 63/64 spot, 5270 was reclaimed, and cash opened in the absolute middle of Monday’s range which led to some chop. On top of that, the response to JOLTS and factory orders was a bit mixed. This ultimately resolved to 5270 (69.5 cash hours low) for a higher low relative to the overnight low and price squeezed all the way to 5312 where it was again rejected. Overnight traders had some amazing range with a short and a long back up, whereas cash hours traders got mostly chop until the last couple hours of the day.

Bulls sure have taken their time here but have ultimately protected the major spots they have needed to this week. Are they finally ready to break this out to the upside? Should we be concerned about a failed breakout? The close certainly looked bullish, but had on Friday and Monday as well and we traded lower. We will be prepared for both scenarios ahead of tomorrow.

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