SPX SPY ES for 5/1/24

The full weekly plan and commentary should be reviewed ahead of this post and can be seen HERE.

While remaining neutral and objective when it is right to do so, my bias in looking for a lower high has been clear. We still have QRA composition and FOMC tomorrow so volatility is expected. Significant technical damage has been done today, but it can be undone just as easily. As of last night, I wasn’t planning on swinging, but today’s short setup triggered what I call a “cascading setup” including a look above and fail week. This morning very early there was a faint scent of “risk-off” in the air. My suspicion was we would see a hot ECI and test 24-27. We did that and more. This then triggered the daily short setup on a lower high.

Today’s high of day was 5141.25. Once yesterday’s low was taken out it became a swing short. I personally took some profit during the last 5 minutes liquidation and again at our major 5052.5 spot (47-52.5). Bulls have a lot of work to do tomorrow, but given the catalysts it is possible to undo this damage.

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-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.