SPX SPY ES for 4/17/24
The first 5 parts in my free series explaining some basic profile concepts is now available at www.pharmdcapital.com. Click PharmDCapital This section and other free material will be added to over time. Scroll down to the “Want a Taste” section to read it.
ICYMI: Enrollment is back open for Trading Doggy Style School. I wasn’t planning on mentioning it but a few people mentioned missing the Discord announcement. Details can also be found at the above website.
The full weekly plan and commentary should be reviewed ahead of this post and can be seen HERE. This includes the 3-week box setup that could present some amazing and large trades this week.
For today we were treating yesterday’s ES range as if it were an Initial Balance (IB). Trades off the IB are to go with the breakout/breakdown that sees continuation, take the reversal trade on a look above/below and fail, and one can fade the edges (short near the top and long near the bottom). We were generally monitoring for a sell response in the 5111-5120 range where our large seller has been active. We were monitoring for a buy response in the 5080.
In between there, a look below and fail of 5089.75 was a long, and a look above and fail of 5105.5 was a short.
The look below and fail of 89.75 triggered right after the close and carried forward into a gap up in the early futures session. The target for this trade is 5105.5. The look above and fail of 5105.5 then triggered a 12 handle selloff, and later in the session a 30 handle selloff. This sell then triggered the look below and fail of yesterday’s low which is a powerful setup. Price rallied 40 handles up to the top of our resistance area and right where the big seller had initiated yesterday morning premarket. This short utlimately ran 70+ handles without anything closely resembling a higher high on the 5-minute chart. Half way down it triggered the breakdown below yesterday’s low.
From yesterday’s plan:
In the Discord there was a perfect second chance re-entry on both ES and NQ. We were monitoring QQQ 0.00%↑ in particular for weakness below yesterday’s low. Thus, I was cautious about taking another look below and fail of yesterday’s low on SPY 0.00%↑. There was additionally a strong 5-minute reoffer sitting just above yesterdays’ low and the IB low. If the 5-minute reoffer was defended (it was) then it was likely to re-trigger the IB low and yesterday low breakdown. This was the result, and the weakness that followed was tremendous.
In the end, ES held an absolutely critical spot that we’ve been aware of for months. It was our major level for this week. While it is true that YTD VWAP sits there as well, there are other reasons for this spot to have held today.
At low of day (Discord is EST-3) we took our last trims and permission was given to look for low leverage swing longs.
Shortly thereafter permission was given for outright longs at 1pm after the good auction formed a 5-min rebid.
This then resolved for a 40 handle move higher before the huge seller stepped in again. Since the seller is still in the tape, we must question the durability of today’s low. We will evaluate it for tonight’s plan.
Discord Instructions for access (free for paid Substack subscribers) are below
To learn more about how I trade, see the post “What is Trading Doggy Style” Here
-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.