SPX SPY ES for 3/12/24
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In the weekly post I discussed the nature of Friday’s profile and how it differed from prior large sell days. My bias was strong toward downside continuation, which is why I held my swing short from 5190 on ESH (~5254 ESM / 5186 SPX):
For today’s plan I was looking to be careful with additional shorts and just trading them level to level. We had 5187, 5168-72, and 5157. We had tested 68-72 and held 3 times during premarket (where I covered some of my short) and went to 5157 at low of day (where I covered some more). After reclaiming 5168 overall my bias was long (I actually front ran that long with a starter for reasons that come from volume profile and price action) and added on confirmation. I did take a short later on but fully aware it was just a scalp. I additionally closed the remainder of my swing short at 5180 as mentioned in the discord and on X.
Part of the reason for caution into 5187 was the SPX chart posted in the weekly plan below the paywall:
Picture after the close today:
Sellers failed (at least as of today) to meet my first criteria for continuing to swing this short. I’ve mentioned previously when I trade against trend I’m locking profits quickly, never letting a green trade go red, and requiring continuing evidence that trend has reversed. With CPI this could change and I could choose to regret my exit, or I can choose to re-entered if/when sellers have accomplished something meaningful which is a higher probability trade anyway. It was a great trade and I don’t need to give it back out of fear of missing out.
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