SPX SPY ES for 3/08/24
Yesterday I sensed some weakness in the market and expected a liquidation. This is quite common in markets as weaker participants get too long or too short the market will rinse them out in search of stronger buyers/sellers. The market certainly found stronger buyers during the European session overnight. Into today I was prepared to be quite bearish if we opened below 5089-93, neutral if we opened in yesterday’s range (but looking to short fails of low 5120s) and bullish above 5123. By the time cash opened we had traded nearly 60 handles off the overnight low after a look below and fail of the 5089-93 spot. We saw bullish continuation to new highs as expected in those circumstances. I definitely overestimated yesterday’s weakness (though it was a nice overnight short) and underestimated potential strength of European buyers in the 5089-93 range. I never would have expected to wake up to that large of a move off the lows. From last night’s plan:
You can see the strength that came in following the look below and fail of 5089-93 and the increasing strength above 5123.
Tomorrow we have more jobs date and the index sits once again somewhat extended (though not as overextended as Monday). Will we get a classic big move up on lotto Friday?
IMPORTANT THIS WEEK
I will continue to use the current (March) ES contract for levels through Friday. Trading View will change ES1 (front contract) to the June contract on Thursday at 1800 EST open and thus will affect Friday trading. One can use ESH2024 on Friday to have these levels apply.
Be sure to see the weekly plan for a bit of context and expanded commentary HERE.
To learn more about how I trade, see the post “What is Trading Doggy Style” Here
-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.
Discord policy may change to a wait period in the near future. Instructions for access (free for paid substack subscribers) are HERE. Reminder that it can take a couple days to get the invite link and ultimately assigned member status once in the “landing” area of Discord.
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