SPX SPY ES for 3/01/24
It's Never Easy
It has been a wild week so far. I came into the week aggressively swing short looking for the major back test at 5066.5. We had a big seller in the tape that facilitated some great short sides trades each day, but in the end no technical damage has been done.
The last couple of days also set up the weekly swing long trade and indeed it was as difficult to manage as advertised. I personally just chose to scale out of my short, hedge twice off the lows and just day trade and enjoy the nice trade. I have zero problem missing a trade especially after a solidly profitable trade. Zero FOMO.
This is why I always try to outline both scenarios. We have a ton of subscribers who may have a different bias. This week was a great example where there was something for bears, and something for bulls. Not everyone needs to be in the same trade as me as long as it is a valid trade both sides can be profitable.
From the weekly plan:
Tuesday cash hours held 5067 and everyone got long and excited, Wednesday low was 5063.25 (overnight), and today’s low was 5060 overnight. The daily chart could not possibly look more bullish looking at the balance (box) back test and the trend channel we’ve been monitoring.
We were also objectively bullish (high time frames) above 5072.25-5074.75 for today on any poor reaction to data. It played out rather interestingly which made it quite difficult (again). If we had been trading higher before data, then sold to this spot and held it, then it would have been much easier to be long. As it is we ripped through this spot from below on data (after the Euro session sell off) and found ourselves at our key 5105 level which then sold us back to this spot (5070 low of day). This is another example of where it gets very difficult to separate intraday bearishness from higher timeframe bullishness. I was short into the spot for a day trade and covered and as mentioned did not attempt to flip long.
There are really only two scenarios that could derail this bullish action and we will cover them in tonight’s post (as one scenario could occur tomorrow) and the weekend post. Other than these playing out we must be bullish on price.
To learn more about how I trade, see the post “What is Trading Doggy Style” Here
-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.
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