SPX SPY ES for 2/26/24

Friday was a rather interesting day for SPY 0.00%↑ as I did something in the discord I’ve never done before. I bring this up because I’ve said a number of times “when you fully expect something to happen and it doesn’t, you need to pay attention” and I have a feeling that Friday’s action may translate into this week. Our plan for Friday was so bullish that I had jokingly started my commentary with “TLDR: BTFD.”

I also only normally call out trades if they were part of the plan for the day, or if there really is only one trade to be had. Most days are range/balance days and two-way intraday trading is completely reasonable and with so many people in there I don’t want to influence someone else’s trade if it is potentially valid. In this case even after saying I wasn’t interested in shorts as recently as premarket, I jettisoned the plan and at 9:41 EST called out okay to short against 5122 as we were ripping higher from the open. I suppose this falls under the last sentence of the commentary and with what I saw I was certain enough to call it out for the group in spite of the wildly bullish backdrop. Price traded only 1.5 handle higher than 22 before resolving 30 handles lower.

This trade captured the entire range of the day and the rest of the day was quite choppy. Most Fridays we expect “lotto Friday” and “vol crush Friday” with very strong indices and we certainly didn’t see that. In the plan for Monday we’ll discuss whether buyers were simply feigning weakness accumulating longs at the lows, or if perhaps something has suddenly changed in the action that we need to be aware of.

-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.

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