SPX SPY ES for 2/21/24
Bears Came to Play, Will They Stay?
ES had failed to find traction above 5048.5 for a third time on Friday and liquidated hard into the Friday close right at our key spot of 5011-5013. No surprise futures opened up on Sunday night from this huge area and tested just under our key weekly level of 5032.25 before selling off hard Monday night right back to 5011-13.
From the weekly plan:
5011-13 held again, but where it failed the second time (our 5017.5 level) implied an incoming test of 5001 which was delivered within 35 minutes (really the entire 4997-5001 range we’ve used for a few weeks). 4997-5001 held four tests during the overnight session but the failure the reclaim 5011-13 put those buyers under extreme pressure. The opening drive off 5001.75 rejected at our old minor 5008.75 spot which was the nail in the coffin for 4997-5001 and implied a 4982.25 test and then 4967.75. The 20sma for ES sat at 4971 today and with 4967.75 being such a huge spot there is no surprise that it held. Whether or not sellers can drive through 4967.75 and more importantly, the next key spot is likely to determine how the next few weeks trade.
-For those that trade SPY/SPX, there is an ES to SPY/SPX converter in Tradingview. See announcements in the Discord.
Discord policy may change to a wait period in the near future. Instructions for access (free for paid substack subscribers) are HERE. Reminder that it can take a couple days to get the invite link and ultimately assigned member status once in the “landing” area of Discord.
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