SPX ES SPY Setups for 1/3/24

Some free alpha and some extra alpha for subscribers

Last week Thursday’s post I had called for a 70 point liquidation of 4840s. This process started on Friday and completed today. From Thursday’s post and this week’s recap:

Well, today we got the rest of the 70 points.

The most likely scenario for this week was a test higher and fail in the 4828.5 range. The overnight high was 4828:

From there we were on watch for a trap into 4773-4773.75 both from the weekly plan and this morning in discord. The long was taken with a

From the weekly plan:

From early Premarket in Discord:

The last 30 minutes of premarket I cautioned about chasing an inventory correction and getting long too soon, and that I preferred a spike into 4773s. (Though longing vs 4779 worked into the open even though I said I personally wouldn’t take it)

I think called for the long at the second (and proper) test of 4373s. For those that missed the initial entry (which I had) I proposed a second chance entry as high as 75 (swing low of the sequence 75.0) and I was personally filled at 75.25.

We then took profits on the way up with our last trims into the 92-97 range where I warned to trail stops on any long runners, and warned about the lower high back test that we knew would follow the 73 hold, also outlined in the weekly plan. Of course we also had the gratuitous 1230 EST move during my lunch for some fun:

The expectation of the back test after trading lower from the weekly plan:

Last, to end the day, I warned that making new lows would actually be BAD for bears and specifically that the low had become problematic for bears. Many of you got long off that and caught a 20 point face ripper long to end the day.

As always, my tradingview times are EST and discord are local (currently EST-2) to compare vs your chart for studying purposes.

Tonight I’ll elaborate both on WHY that low was so quickly identified as being problematic for bears, and I will discuss what comes next.