SPX ES SPY Setups for 12/13

A Bearish Even Has Occurred 👀👀

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From the weekly post and the post for today, ES 4651.75 was key to bid for direct continuation higher. This level was defended at 4652 in the overnight session on Monday and we’ve now rallied 50+ points from it.

Into today we had 4668-4669.75 as a rough pivot and were bullish above. After the data spike up was rejected, price opened right at support. We knew to watch the opening drive, instead of guessing, and then monitor for continuation. The initial drive lower took price through 4668 but buyers immediately absorbed sellers at our first level lower, 4662.75 where we knew bulls had a bid left in them. A hold of 4662.75 implied a pivotal retest of the open. Swaghetti joined the early commentary today and we discussed the important of sellers defending the open AND getting back down through 4666 and NLOD or they would get destroyed.

Buyers ripped it back above support for a false breakdown, reclaimed the open, and the game was over for sellers. From there market structure remained bullish for the rest of the day and there was no reason to do anything but trail runners from long entries.

Tomorrow we have PPI and FOMC. I’m also looking forward to mortgage applications though I don’t believe it will have any meaningful impact on the markets tomorrow.