SPX ES SPY Setups for 12/10
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For Friday the long setup was a look below and fail of 4579 specifically if we had some supportive structure below our 75-77 spot had proven supportive. We got the nasty move on data into our strong 4560.5-4562.25 spot (4561.75 premarket low) followed by a quick reclaim of 4579 which trapped sellers below. This represented a clear rejection of prices lower than Thursday’s VAL. I posted in the discord that sellers would need back below 79 in a bad way or it wouldn’t be the best day for them.
Right before the open we saw a strong bid at our 75-77 spot. We opened at 4581, quickly tested below 4579 and immediately reclaimed. This long went for 30 points essentially in a straight line to our major 4610 spot.
For those that missed the 4579 entry, a re-bid entry at 4585s was spotted and posted in the discord 15 minutes before 4585s traded (my discord is EST-2)
This entry was probably the safest and easiest trade of the day as it truly went up in a straight line to our 4610 spot for 25 points in 20 minutes.
Levels - Moving forward I will be using the new ES contract ESH24 (March 2024 expiry) which is now ES1 on Tradingview. I will not label where all of these levels come from as I believe it will cause serious confusion because of the unique way I manage the first week of contract roll. In short, many of my levels are direct from a non back adjusted chart, but some of them I make manual adjustments based on ESZ, ESH, SPX, and SPX CFD.
See weekly levels if we trade higher than 4718
4666 reference last week’s high
4662.75 is an adjusted level and will use as Friday’s VAH
4557.5 Friday Afternoon Pullback Low (APBL)
4651.75 Key to bid early week for immediate continuation.
4644 - Using as Friday’s VAL
4629-4631 - Friday’s RTH low on ESH into a higher timeframe spot.
4624.25-4626.75 early sign of weakness below
4614.25 Friday’s ETH low on ESH but also derived from ESZ. Cautiously bearish below here especially after we see a reaction at 4603.25 first.
See weekly levels if we trade lower than 4614.25
Per the weekly, we once again got an attempted weekly and daily spike on Friday. I’ll consider this a potential failed spike below 4657.75. HOWEVER, the context this time is a bit different. Value last week overlapped to higher relative to the two prior weeks and SOME value was built above the 11/26 week high. We would need to see the action at 4651.75 before considering shorts but IF the failed spike becomes the active trade then I would expect a full value traverse to target 4644. Given the large amount of data and events this week, it would not seen unreasonable for us to again pull back in range and explore value. Thus I will look for value traverse plays within this range.
TRADE SETUPS: Worth noting. Many of the setups I provide are most likely to be effective early in the session. As a general rule so much can change after a few hours of RTH that it is best to look for these early especially for less experienced traders. I’ve also assigned some letter grades for the quality of the setup, something I’ll consider moving forward.
If we dip first to 4651.75 I would consider bidding this directly with a stop just below 49.75 for 2-2.5 points risk. I would get my first trim off in the 57.5-62.75 range and set stops to even on the rest quickly. Friday’s high 4666 would be the next target and I would trail remaining stops pretty tightly. B setup because of how likely it is we get a response and such tight risk, but potentially limited upside. This is a C+ setup at best if we test higher and fail first (especially if we look above Friday’s highs)
Dip that holds 4644 or looks below and fails (especially if we trade lower first (this is a far better long setup if we test lower first than if we test higher first and fail). A setup if we look below and fail and A+ if we have build solid structure below prior to the reclaim. B+ setup still if we hold it because of existing structure in place. This would target 4660.5-4662.75 ultimately but I would definitely trim into the low 4650s to get something off and set stops to even.
There is demand at 4635.75-4639.75 that would work perfectly for the above setup to play out. I would also CONSIDER a direct long at this spot with a tight stop below 4635.75 and it would have to aggressively reclaim 4644. I would be very cautious if there is a weak bullish reaction. This is a way to front run the 4644 loow below and fail which potentially target 4660s for a nice 20 point trade. Again I would still plan to trim low 4650s even with a strong 4644 reclaim. B+ setup because of potential range and relatively small risk.
I won’t post a gap up and go ahead of time given the amount of overhead. We can evaluate in the discord in the AM.
Look above and fail of last week’s (Friday’s) highs is reasonable to take a shot because IF it works the range could be significant. I might even take a 4571.75-4675 short directly to front run this if I see some strong order flow or price action setting up against this spot. If I were to enter around 70 I would have to be careful of 4662.75-4666 holding. Below 4662.75 and the active sequence would suggest to me that 57.5 and 51.75 are less likely to hold and I would target 4644. I would still be prepared to trim at these spots if tempo/pace of selling is slow into them. The safer entry (as opposed to front running in the 70s) is to wait for bearish price action and overhead supply below 4666 after the look above. B+ setup if this is the case. B- setup for shorting 70s direct.
If the above has already played out, then I would consider an entry on a lower high that fails 4657.5 IF there has already been demonstrated a weak bullish reaction off 4651.75 but I really would want that spot tapped first. A short in this situation if we have NOT looked above Friday’s highs is a C or C- trade but a C+/B- if we have.