SPX ES SPY Setups for 11/17
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In Tuesday night’s post for Wednesday, I had stated that I thought the market was looking to balance in an old range 4500.5-4543.5 based on how price was reacting at certain levels. This is why I was willing to attempt a swing short at on the lower high at 4535 yesterday as I was expecting to at least see 4502.25. Wednesday’s ETH high was 4541.25 (RTH high of 4536.75) and today’s low was 4501.75. Because we would likely reverse off 4502.25 if I was correct about the balance range, we were on watch for a look below and fail today and posted in the discord to manage shorts into that spot.
From Tuesday:
From Wednesday:
And
Today was rather tricky to trade early. One had to be fully prepared to hit that reverse button or just lock profits and sit out. The look below and fail of yesterday’s ES low played out overnight into the open which saw continuation into the value traverse long but fell 7 ticks short of the target. We then sold off, making lower lows and lower highs, setting up the short below 4517.75 which ultimately resolved to the target of 4500-4502.5. As discussed in the discord, as we were at the bottom of the balance, and below value for both the last 3 days AND intraday, a meaningful reversal was not a surprise. As it turns out the look below and fail into value traverse long played out AGAIN after hitting low of day.