SPX ES SPY Setups for 11/16

Time for a swing high or naw?

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In last night’s post I had proposed the possibility that we could see a negative PPI today, see an initial bullish reaction followed by a stiff rejection lower. This is exactly what we saw during premarket. One of our trade setups called specifically for this and how we would identify that it was occurring.

The overnight sell us directly to our key level of 4518.25 (low 18.5) into the open. I posted in the discord to watch for an opening drive higher because of the thesis we have been working on. Price indeed rallied 12 points directly from the open before finding sell side interest.

Because of the bullish context about today (expanded on below), sellers were unable to gain much traction in terms of follow through below our key level of 4518.25. There was one brief excursion where sellers were ultimately able to get the gap fill but they were selling below value for the day and had to cover (including me). I had posted this possibility in the discord 10 minutes before it happened (EST-2) and what to expect in the absence of continuation.

Before we get into the plan for tomorrow, I would make sure you have read (and possibly re-read) the commentary from last night’s post as it provides important context for what may happen next.