SPX ES SPY Setups for 11/14

Will CPI make or break the index?

Note: If you are looking for Discord access, see my pinned substack post or pinned tweet for instructions. Be aware it takes a few days to fully process.

Today’s post will be somewhat brief as not a whole lot objectively changed, and CPI tomorrow is likely to change things quite a bit. Both the overnight and cash session followed yesterday’s script perfectly. Our “short below 4419” trade set up pretty early in the overnight session and transitioned into our long setup of “long a hold of 4407” during the European session so there was a trade on both sides of the tape overnight. Prior to the open the 4419 short set up again. I had specifically called out trading into 4412.25-4414.75 range first and then back testing 4419-24 from below. The swing low immediately preceding the open was 4413.75, price spiked to 4419.25 at the open and then sold off hard, again into our long setup at 4407 (4407.25 low of day). I had posted in the discord that the “long a hold of 4407” was actually now improved as it would also represent a look below and fail of the overnight low. This long turned out to be the best trade of the day (no surprise given it was already an A setup last night before upgrading) and ran for 30 points. Our other short setup then presented, a look above and fail of Friday’s highs that fails 4435-4440. That swing high and high of day ended up 4436.75, absorption of buyers by sellers was seen under 4435, and price resolved down to our target of 4419-24 (22.25 Afternoon Pullback Low).

Levels for tomorrow and trade setups below