SPX ES SPY Setups for 1/11/24

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RECAP:

Our trade setups for today centered around 4786.75-4788.75 as the first dip buy spot, and yesterday’s highs 4804. Globex opened and was flat to down most of the Asia session, holding the 86.75-88.75 spot. Into the London open there was, naturally, a quick trap lower to 4786 and then a face ripper to exactly 4804 (precise double tops should be treated as suspect).. London then took the entire range back down and the late premarket low at 0900 was 87.75. From there price ripped straight up into the open and at the open. The 4804 poor high was cleaned up and sellers then attempted to play out the look above and fail. They were actually reasonably successful, getting price below the open, but buyers stepped back in at defended 92s (yesterday and overnight VPOC). Buyers really struggled to initiate bids above 4804, requiring multiple traps to gather the steam to trade higher. After finally basing above 4804 (after another trap following the 10-year auction) trading finally became one sides with a nice squeeze into 4828s. We did see a nice late day sell off as price had strayed quite far from value on the squeeze, but this was only a back test of today’s developing VPOC and overnight VWAP. Tomorrow is CPI so we should expect some volatility even if the print itself isn’t particularly meaningful from a macro perspective.