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Equity index futures will roll contracts this week. Because of that, this week’s plan will have significantly more levels, to the upside in particular. The December contract for ES will trade at roughly a 57-handle premium and the NQ contract will trade at roughly a 237-handle premium.
Last week we were monitoring the 4-week balance range on ES with specific attention on 6496-6502.5 which was the effective top of range (basically the top of value even though the extreme top of the range was 6541.75). Buyers needed to establish value above this range to trigger a breakout, and they did so on Monday and Tuesday. From last week’s plan:
Notice that dips below this area were swiftly bought on Monday and Tuesday, representing a rejection of prices lower. This is an alternative way to see “acceptance” of higher prices as “acceptance” is often such a nebulous term. We got the breakout on Wednesday.
On Thursday ES reached a key high time frame extension along with an important VWAP band. This has often meant a (even if brief) pause and it did so on Friday.
NQ finally made a new all-time high on Friday, joining ES and YM in price discovery. It has some additional room to its next high time frame extension.
We have FOMC and contract roll this upcoming week, both of which are often key inflection points for equity indices.
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