Market Analysis for The Week of 8/17

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SPY 0.00%↑

This past week saw the breakout of the 6-week balance on ES, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows and building value higher. I offered some criticism on X of the strength of this breakout and, while valid, perhaps we can forgive bulls their malaise after such a large and direct move higher from the bottom of the balance. It isn’t ideal to form fresh balance immediately after such a large breakout, yet ES has done just that. Additionally, NQ flashed some warning signs on Wednesday and remained quite weak the rest of the week. YM components were able to keep ES strong enough to make a new all-time high on Friday early morning and both YM and ES left ETH all-time highs (generally not any kind of topping sign). It is entirely possible for weakness to creep in without a “good” high, but the burden of proof remains on sellers. This week’s plan breaks down both the bull and bear cases for ES and NQ as their profiles are quite different. Sellers do have a window here, but there are a number of bear traps waiting lower as well. It should be an interesting week, and we will be prepared with both the weekly and daily plans.

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