Market Analysis for The Week of 5/17
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Markets continued on their upward march this past week. My goal each week has been to find the area which defines risk for longs, so subscribers know which dips are constructive and which are not. Low of week has been outlined in the plan multiple weeks in a row and was the case again this past week. ES never really threatened its line in the sand, but held higher off the Thursday 5/7 close:
After trading higher on Monday, ES formed a multi-day balance on Tuesday by taking out Monday’s low. The hold of Thursday’s close immediately triggered the necessary reclaim and Wednesday afternoon broke the multi-day balance to the upside. My target for this move was the 7540s. From the Wednesday night for Thursday plan:
By noon on Thursday the 7540 target had been met and a pullback materialized into Friday:
NQ actually did come down to its major area to work against for longs on Tuesday’s pullback.
Note the look below and fail (LBAF) of 28800-28817, the immediate reclaim of 945-975, and the Tuesday night and Wednesday cash session pullback lows holding 29073.
Friday saw some weakness with a gap down which immediately brought the daily timeframe into balance and is a presumed failed upside break of the multi-day balance range which had formed earlier in the week. As I’ve previously mentioned, a failed upside break of a multi-day balance is far less bearish than an actual downside break. As mentioned above the paywall in last week’s plan, we have not yet even had a structural daily higher low since low of year. We have not yet had a downtrend even on a 30-minute chart to allow for this. As of now we still do not, but for the first week in some time, sellers have a window to do just that. Short time frame is currently neutral, intermediate time frame remains bullish, and high time frame remains bullish. Can sellers trigger a short time frame downtrend this week and if so, can they neutralize the intermediate trend?
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