Market Analysis for The Week of 3/8
Flash-Crash Risk Meets Relentless Dip-Buying and (overly?) Juiced Volatility
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Markets are sitting in a precarious balance. The probability of a sudden downside air-pocket feels higher than it has in quite some time, yet the Nasdaq continues to show relative resilience above its key yearly level even as the S&P has weakened and finally lost a major yearly level. Volatility has surged aggressively, and if the market fails to justify that elevated vol, perhaps we get the typical vol crush bid. That said, the macro backdrop remains fragile: stress has been building in credit markets, while crude oil is ripping higher amid the escalating conflict with Iran. The result is a market caught between significant downside risk and the ever-present potential for a sharp reflexive rally. My extended thoughts and the key levels below:
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