Market Analysis for The Week of 2/8
Do Not Assume You Know How This Will Go
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be seen here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
In this past week’s plan, I questioned if we would see a risk transmission into equities following the last Friday’s move in precious metals. On Sunday night we saw a massive selloff in equities driven by South Korean markets which triggered what I’ll refer to (shorthand) as a soft halt. This led to a spectacular recovery and ultimately a short squeeze on Monday as NQ opened above our major weekly level 25516-25538. This rip higher then triggered the weekly short setup, a look above and fail of 25934-25946. The ensuing selloff took NQ below the critical 516-538 range, which then accelerated as expected below 25142-25151. By Thursday’s low it was time to be fully covered on shorts, and I was out of all futures shorts, March QQQ puts, and SPY puts.
On Thursday evening, the South Koreans were at it again, and NQ was sold into a major yearly support from the year ahead video. There was another “soft halt” and once again a massive rally ensued into and after Friday’s open.
Bitcoin was absolutely slaughtered until the Thursday night “soft halt.” This happened just a few minutes after we got long Bitcoin (via IBIT) at the same location we bought in 2024 ahead of the move to $100k+
Bitcoin rallied nearly 20% from the spot in short order:
It was a wild week overall and now we must ask ourselves if this was a durable low in equities ahead of a move to new highs, or if we should be expecting a lower high into new lows.
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