Market Analysis for The Week of 1/4
It Has Begun
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The 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead can be seen here: 2026 Equity Markets Year Ahead
The stage has been fully set for the first major move of 2026. I am generally expecting it to produce at least a $43 move on QQQ and a $40 move on SPY. Sellers currently maintain short term control, but Friday came into a very key area on both indices. There is one more day of the “Santa Rally” window and the US just made a major geopolitical move which ironically may be bullish US equities. Broadly, however, equities have been weak given the context of a Fed rate cut, the end to QT, the resumption of asset purchases by the Fed (another not-QE QE situation) and positive year-end flows in an up year. This week’s plan and the next couple (along with the daily plans) will have us on the right side of the trade whether equity indices break to the upside or the downside.
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