Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
3/23-3/28
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The index didn’t do a whole lot this week. For the first move of the week, we were monitoring for a break from the 4-day range to end last week, wary of a failed break particularly at the SPX 3/7 low and 3/10 open. We used SPX to eliminate some of the noise from contract roll. We got this failed breakout on both Monday and Thursday, gapping back down and trading into it on Tuesday and Friday. However, both Tuesday and Friday held at basically the same spot SPX 5600. From last week’s plan:
This is definitely an example of something I’ve said a number of times previously: “when bearish setups don’t produce bearish results, pay attention.” This is something we were prepared for. Also from last week’s plan:
This week:
We therefore focused on day trades without a multi-day bias, hedged our swings on pops and covered those hedges on the gap downs. I did see some things in today’s action that gave me more reason to be constructive on price into next week than I have been previously, but as always, we will be prepared for either direction and are coming into the weekend positioned neutrally.
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