Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
4/6-4/11
If you are looking to join the Discord please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues. The daily and weekly plans are posted in the Discord so there is no reason to subscribe to both. The price is scheduled to increase this weekend, but it would NOT impact existing subscribers.
Be sure you have read the Starter Kit, including the free section even if you’re a paid subscriber. Trading Doggy Style Starter Kit
In last week’s plan (and in prior weeks) we were looking for a capitulation washout. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted an additional 10% in one week, but it seems that longs have finally decided to give up. That process may not yet have climaxed, but it is certainly underway. Sharing some of last week’s commentary as it should provide a good idea of where I’m at this week:
We saw a gap down on Monday that saw a significant rally into Wednesday’s tariff news (perhaps a bit optimistic). We knew that the prior week’s longs were fully trapped and at risk below 5733.5-5740. The cash hours high of day on Wednesday was 5739.25 where we flipped directionally quite short by both adding to shorts and closing longs. On the tariff news we went 100% short on a swing basis and carried that into the massive gap down and go on Thursday. This included SPXU 0.00%↑ SQQQ 0.00%↑ SPY 0.00%↑ puts UVIX 0.00%↑ along with VIX calls and we had been swinging FXY 0.00%↑ calls (effectively a proxy short on the index in this situation).
We technically didn’t limit down on either day, but ES dropped 11.5% from the Wednesday after hours high to Friday’s low.
While the question on everyone’s mind is “when will we bottom,” I think the more appropriate question we must answer is “is this a bear market?”
This week’s written plan and video Below