Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
Week of 6/22. Updated with minor edit to 2nd to last paragraph
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With contract roll, a non-back adjusted ES chart made a new high, coming into an absolutely massive area. The 6105-6113 range was as major support/resistance area near the all-time high. ES broke down from there at December’s FOMC, January’s FOMC, and again on 2/21 to really start the selloff.
It is worth noting that on a back adjusted chart (or simply using SPY or SPX) the index made a lower high and a lower low this week. We had proposed this as a base case (above the paywall) in last week’s plan:
SPX closed the week right at its prior 3-week balance high (5968.61) after taking out the prior week’s low. It has been an extremely slow and grinding downtrend, with a chance to see acceleration this week. I do have my eye on a trap that could terminate this short time frame downtrend quickly but would be happy to see a deeper pullback to find a weekly higher low as well.
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