Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
3/30-4/5
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We got the lower high we were looking for this week, in rather spectacular fashion. After the massive gap up and go on Sunday night into Monday, the index was really quite boring until Wednesday and quickly turned into a bit of a “lockout selloff.” The ES 5821.25-5834 was of particular concern. High of week was 5837.25 One need not short the markets directly, but taking precautions is certainly indicated. Once the high time frame 5811 was lost, we sold in nearly a straight line to the 5726-5733.5 spot. This was the bulls’ last reasonable chance to attempt to defend a higher low (relative to mid-March). Once we opened Friday below it and offered it from below the persistent selling resumed. From last week’s plan:
I mentioned the bearish cross of the 21 day ema down the 200 day SMA on Thursday night and it didn’t disappoint. The last time this happened was February of 2022. It is hard to imagine that we don’t now make new lows after bulls have been too busy liquidating to accumulate but this has been a wild market so we will remain open to anything.
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