Market Analysis for The Week Ahead
4/20-4/25
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The market took a much-needed breather this shortened week, posting an inside week on lower volume than we have seen the last week or so. This pause makes sense as we continue to deal with policy uncertainty. There are a few things that strike me as notable this week. SPY traded only 23 cents (and a few minutes) above its weekly open. After all the excitement over the weekend (and the front-running on Friday) this is a pretty poor showing. Both SPY and QQQ found resistance again up near the 21-day ema and closed somewhat near the low of week. On the flip side, all of the action took place above Friday’s low and only a brief wick on Wednesday traded below the 4/7 high and 4/4 open. While this all makes for an ugly looking chart, it does keep open the possibility that a short time frame structural higher low is holding.
We have a busy week of earnings next week, and who knows what kind of policy announcements. While our big picture focus will be on a potential break from the inside week, we’ll dig into some of the clues left behind on the volume profile.
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